Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million units in November from a level of 6.24 million in October, but were 10.7 percent below the 7.03 million-unit pace in November 2005.
The median price of home sales decreased $1,000 to $218,000 and is down 3.1% YOY.
The average price increased to $1,000 to $265,000 and is down 1.8% YOY.
Inventory dropped to a 7.3 month supply while the YOY increase in inventory is 30.6%.
The big reason for the increase was a 6% jump in the Northeast sales. This is the smallest region sales wise. All other regions were either up slightly (the West was up .8%) unchanged (the Midwest) or down (the South -1.8%).
So -- inventory is still very high and the reason for the increase was a jump in sales in the smallest real estate region in the country.
In other words, this report looks fair but still raises three concerns.
1.) There is still a ton of inventory on the market in a declining YOY sales environment. That means the inventory will be there awhile. So the possibility of a price drop still remains.
2.) Without the NE increase (which I am guessing is partly due to an unseasonably warm winter and is the smallest region in the country by size of sales), this report would have been negative. The next report will indicate how sustainable this increase is but I have some doubts.
3.) The YOY price change is dropping and the median price has dropped each month since July. In other words, prices have no stabilized, although the rate of the median decrease has slowed. So long as prices are dropping and have not stabilized for a few months, calling an absolute bottom in the housing market is probably premature.
Overall, however, this report will give plenty of ammunition to pundits calling the housing market decline over.
7 comments:
“It was the first time on record that sales prices compared to a year ago have fallen for four straight months.”
We're making history here.
That's a scary stat. Thanks.
bout the increase in the northeast, could it have anything to do with the billions of dollars given out to Wall st execs, who are now buying $3 million "starter" condos, and $15 to $20 million upgrades from their "starters" from 2000? If 1000 new purchases at an average $5 million, that would add $5 billion in sales.
I got these numbers from NPR, who has reported on how Wall Streets year end bonuses for the last 3 years have fueled the high priced Manhatten market. Just a guess, but I'm sure people in the rest of the NE are getting some of these bonuses too.
Hemang's right, I'll bet. Late last year, we decided to sell our NYC coop and move upstate. We thought we'd wait til spring, but our real-estate agent advised us to hurry up and get it on the market because of December Wall Street bonus money. It sold in three days.
The other factor besides Wall Street? Filthy-rich foreigners, who are making the NYC area their second home. In fact, I'm betting Metro NYC is driving the bulk of the 6% rise.
the florida numbers came out today and they are pretty ugly
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061228/clth002.html?.v=73
My understanding is that existing home sales are counted when the sale closes, so what we're seeing for the November sales number are houses that mostly went under contract in September. (Unlike new home sales that get counted when the contract is signed)
A little early for the 'Wall Street Bonus' to factor in. Unless these guys knew in September what their December bonuses would be.
Hemang -- that's a damn good observation.
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