Taking all of these factors into account, my assessment is that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth falling too low. Thus, some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to address this inflation risk. Of course, whether policy will need to be adjusted and the degree of any adjustment will depend on the data we see in the months to come and how that data influences our forecast of the economy.
Translation: I'm not going to vote for lower rates in the current environment.
4 comments:
Bonddad, you are the best, but I disagree with your translation of Moscow's statement.
The reason these guy's are talking as if inflation is about to grab us by the throat is to protect the dollar.
Bernanke told something within the same solar system as the truth to Congress. The job of guys like Moscow is to slant the truth toward higher rates...which Bernanke did not do.
It's Bernanke's version of Greenspan's dishonesty.
And its sole goal is to prevent a run on the dollar.
My odds on a run on the dollar: 50%
Bonddad, you are the best, but I disagree with your translation of Moscow's statement.
The reason these guy's are talking as if inflation is about to grab us by the throat is to protect the dollar.
Bernanke told something within the same solar system as the truth to Congress. The job of guys like Moscow is to slant the truth toward higher rates...which Bernanke did not do.
It's Bernanke's version of Greenspan's dishonesty.
And its sole goal is to prevent a run on the dollar.
My odds on a run on the dollar: 50%
I don't disagree that part of the Fed's policy is to jawbone the markets to some degree.
But there has been a concerted effort by Fed members to be more transparent. Plus, all Fed governors have essentially said the same thing over the last few months. I think they are all concerned about commodity prices in one degree or another. While oil has sold off, we can thank an unusually warm winter for that. As we approach the summer driving season I would expect a rebound. China and India are still going to consume a lot of raw materials as well, adding at least some type of floor to various metals
Well, you point to yet another case for disaster. Yeesh.
Because, if commodities keep going "up", that will put more pressure on the dollar. A lot more.
There is a theory that one of the reasons Iraq was invaded was that they were about to start selling oil in euros.
So, I agree with you, but I stil think there will be a run on the dollar.
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