Anyway, my boy will be fine. He's on anti-inflammatory and pain killers right now. In fact, I think he's a little stoned. But he's going to be fine.
Now, onto the new home sales data.
From CBS.Marketwatch:
Sales of new homes increased 2.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 as the inventory of homes for sale dropped for a fourth straight month, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.
Sales were stronger than the 820,000 annualized pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. In addition, sales in June were revised slightly higher.
Sales are down 10.2% compared with last July. Read the full report.
"Given the volatility inherent in the data and the troubles in the mortgage market, however, it is unlikely that July represents a turnaround in housing trends," wrote Celia Chen, an economist for Moody's Economy.com. "At best, it will be the first sign of a slow and unsteady climb back to health."
You can see the figures here
A few points.
1.) I'm having a hard time buying the 2.8% increase. All of the homebuilders have announced poor results this quarter. None have even hinted at the possibility of a rebound. We've had a ton of mortgage lenders issue terrible statements about their business. And suddenly new home sales increase? I'm just having a hard time buying that.
2.) The big jump came from the West, which increased 22.4% from month-ago levels. For anyone who has been paying attention, the West (especially California) has gotten hammered over the last 6 months. That makes this increase hard to swallow. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen, just that the overall environment isn't conducive to that kind of pick-up in activity. For more information check out Calculated Risk, which has been all over the California market.
3.) The total inventory available for sale has decreased 6.9% from year ago levels. That is a very positive sign. One of my main concerns about the new and existing home sales markets is the incredible inventory overhang. As long as that has been out there I have been very bearish on real estate. It looks like we are starting to see this total drop a bit, which is a very good sign. However, we still have a long way to go.
7 comments:
Man, good to hear your pooch is OK. Got one of me own (Chesapeake Bay Retriever), so I know how it is.
Glad Sarge is OK.
This predates the worst of the mortgage mayhem doesn't it? So there may have been a boomlet building in July before everything went bonkers. I imagine lots of homebuilders are offering pretty rich incentives which might draw a few fresh buyers. Also, they only count contracts signed, cancellations after the deal is inked aren't taken out of this number. So some of the sales may wind up cancelling if the buyer cannot get financing at completion or cannot sell their existing home.
With the track record of this administration, is there any reason to automatically believe anything that comes out of any department, Commerce or otherwise? These cabinet depts are staffed thoroughly with political appointees whose job is to make the administration look good. If it looks too good to you to be true, you're probably staring at more malarkey from these folks.
Bonddad,
I live in California and the on-the-ground perspective yields a few observations.
1. there are a TON of properties on the market by owners who want to get out with as much as possible before the imminent bust. Prices are staying high but inventories are rising. As sellers become more motivated, PERHAPS there might be a few more deals happening from tentative buyers.
2. Foreclosures are happening all around me, including the house where I am currently renting. A local real estate agent recently lost her house and is washing dishes at the local bar. Do foreclosures and resulting sales count in the figures?
PS my dog says hi, and napping in preparation for the weekend.
I'm glad your guy will be OK. I've had 3 golden retrievers and when anything happened to them, I've been so worried and distressed. I know that helpless feeling when one of our "fur kids" has troubles. On a different note, I am not trusting these numbers re: housing. The numbers released today do not seem to me to fit with the realities. Until we see further data, I'm staying sceptical.
I'm with BlueState -- what are the chances that these housing start numbers are bogus? As Hoosier pointed out, there might be fudging because the number is based on contracts signed, not homes actually started. But it's enough to make the market rally for one day. The spin wins one 24-hour news cycle...
Most people know the "unemployment rate" actually shows the percentage of people receiving dole cheques, not the number of people who aren't working. And the "inflation rate" measures the "core" parameters, not "volatile" items such as food or petrol -- i.e. THE VERY THINGS WHOSE PRICES FLUCTUATE! I'm also suspicious about the "job creation" numbers which are revised up or down by tens of thousands in the months after they're released.
I'm paranoid about what I perceive as the fundamental, down-to-their-DNA dishonesty of the Bush Crime Family, Bonddad. You know more about the fine points of how the numbers are compiled. Can they be tweaked? The Bushies have had almost seven years to infiltrate their minions into all layers of the bureaucracy. As mentioned in the famous NYT mag article by Ron Suskind, they believe they can "create reality." If they put out bogus numbers, and the market reacts to it, isn't that what they've said they do? But if the official numbers don't reflect what's actually happening, as was the case in Soviet times and with the Chinese communists now, that leads to bad business decisions being made.
I like how you give perspective on the meaning of the daily dribble, Bonddad. Maybe in a future post you can give some analysis of the honesty of what passes for statistics. BTW, I think you got shafted on your last time on Seder -- he spent too much time with the two bloggers before you!
There are a TON of properties on the market by owners who want to get out with as much as possible before the imminent bust. Prices are staying high but inventories are rising. As sellers become more motivated, PERHAPS there might be a few more deals happening from tentative buyers.
===========================
steve
Homes in Albany, GA at www.BestInAlbany.com: is the site to begin your search for real estate, buying or selling a home or property.
Homes for sale and homes for rent in Albany, GA
Post a Comment