Sunday, October 21, 2007

Overview of the Markets

Below is a rundown of the large industry sectors. Here I'm going to take a look at the larger, broader averages to see how they look from a technical perspective.



The SPYs moved through the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages (SMAs) on Friday. In addition, volume was high. Also notice that volume has been increasing since the market top a little over a week ago. The SPYs are trading right at the 50 day SMA. Because of the rapid fall I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of "buying on the dip" rally.



The QQQQs were forming a triangle consolidation pattern at the top of the latest rally. However, they have broken that trend and moved through the 10 day SMA on Friday on heavy volume. However, the QQQQs are trading right at the 20 day SMA which could provide some technical support. In addition, tech has the benefit of not being mortgage related.



The DIAs have moved through the 10, 20 and 50 SMA -- although the break through the 50 SMA is a small break and could be easily reversed. Like the SPYs, we've seen volume increase on this downturn.



The S&P 100 tracker (the OEF) has moved through the 10 and 20 day SMA. It is now resting at the 50 day SMA, where it sold-off to on heavy volume on Friday.



The S&P mid-caps have moved through the 10 and 20 day SMAs and is now resting on the 200 day SMA. In addition, they have clearly broken the lower trend channel. Friday's sell-off was on high volume.



The Russell 2000 is now below the 200 day SMA -- bearish territory. Friday's sell-off was on heavy volume.

Aside from the QQQQs, all of the other averages are not in good technical shape. Traders are clearly moving away from the riskier areas of the market (the Russell 2000) and are even selling off the larger, more stable companies (the OEF). The riskier areas of the market (the mid and small caps) are at or below the 200 day SMA, indicating bearish sentiment towards there sectors.

Short version -- the markets do not look good right now.