Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Both the SPYs and the QQQQs gapped higher at the open. Then both sold off to their respective support levels. Once they hit those levels, the selling started in earnest on higher volume. Once again, we have an end-of-the day sell-off on big volume. My guess is traders are concerned about the CPI report tomorrow. A number high enough to imply the Fed can't lower rates anymore will probably be trouble for the markets.
With the QQQQs, I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to see a dead-cat bounce. This occurs when prices drop hard, rebound a bit and then drop back to levels from the hard sell-off. On this chart, prices would go back to the $48.60 level. A hard sell-off indicates a rapid reverse in overall psychology along with underlying concern about something. Traders may not know exactly what they are concerned about, but something has them spooked enough to get out quickly.
With the SPYs, notice we're still clearly in a downward sloping range, coming down from a peak in early/mid October. Prices have crossed the 200 day SMA -- a good sign -- but they have printed a bearish bar. Also note the 10 and 20 day SMAs are headed lower.