-- The market rallied until early March. This was in reaction to the credit crunch.
-- The market sold-off until late June to a bit below the 200 day SMA. This was in reaction to the stock market's rally at the time.
-- The market rallied again until mid-September. Again, this was a safe haven rally.
-- The market has sold off as of late.
The treasury market is caught between two different important cross-winds right now. On one had we have the safe haven play. As investors deal with their concern about the other markets they will flood in Treasury bonds. At the same time, over the last few months the US government has said they will spend a lot more money. That means more treasury bonds will be issued. Increased supply = lower price.
On the daily chart, notice the following:
-- Prices are below the 200 day SMA.
-- All the shorter SMAs are now beading lower
-- All the SMAs are also very tightly bunched right now. This indicates there is a mixture of expectations in the market. There is an even balance between bulls and bears right now.
I'm on Linked In and Twitter (@captivelawyer). Silver Oz's Linked In name is @silver_oz. NDD is a fossil and may be reached by etching a picture in stone on the wall of a cave.
The Bonddad Economic History Project
At the beginning of 2012, I decided to start looking at the actual, statistical history of the US economy starting in 1950. The reason is simple: to find out what really happened. So, when you see title of a post that begins with a year such as 1957, followed by "employment" or "Fed policy: you know what it's for. You can also access the information by typing in BE for Bonddad econ and a year to find information on a particular year.
Here is a link to pages that contain links to all the posts on the years listed.