Friday, January 30, 2009

About that GDP Number

From the BEA:

The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from private inventory investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.


In other words, everything except government spending was terrible.

In addition, consider the following charts:



The above chart is simply quarterly GDP growth. Notice the first set of GDP numbers from the 3Q06 to 1Q07. This was an extremely weak area of growth. Then notice the second area -- which is the last 5 quarters. This is also an extremely weak patch of growth. In other words, the economy hasn't been doing that well for some time.



The above graph shows the contributions to the 4th quarter's percent change in growth. Notice there are only two positive areas -- exports and government spending. And government spending only added .38. In other words -- all areas of the economy are in terrible shape right now.