Tuesday, January 6, 2009

How Long Can Non-Residential Spending Hold-Up?

From the WSJ:

Residential spending fell at a 4.1% rate in November to $336.3 billion, 22.8% lower than November 2007. Despite the credit crunch and worsening economy, nonresidential spending showed surprising resilience, rising 1% during the month to $742.1 billion, up 9.2% from the previous year.


Here is the accompanying chart:



Click for a larger image

Notice that non-residential spending has remained strong as residential spending has dropped. However, note this:

Vacancy rates in office buildings exceed 10 percent in virtually every major city in the country and are rising rapidly, a sign of economic distress that could lead to yet another wave of problems for troubled lenders.


That does not bode well for the coming year.