- by New Deal democrat
This morning Industrial production was reported up 0.5%, as was capacity utilization.
For 4 months I have been highlighting the surge in Leading Economic Indicators. As of this morning, 3 of the 5 known metrics relied upon to date the end of recessions -- real retail sales, aggregate hours worked, and industrial production -- all have stopped declining, and two have affirmatively turned back up.
The remaining two are nonfarm payrolls, which if current trend continues, will turn up in 2-4 months, and wages which remain a real and structural problem.
In summary, the recession has bottomed, but we can't say any meaningful "recovery" has yet begun.
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