Geithner's tenure has been rocky with lawmakers and the public, and recently he has appeared to have fallen out of favor again. Geithner has come under criticism for the Obama administration's regulatory overhaul, which he had a key role in developing, as well as the bailout of American International Group (AIG Quote) and its trading partners, like Goldman Sachs(GS Quote), during his position as New York Federal Reserve chief in the previous administration.
Last week, he got into a heated exchange with members of the Joint Economic Committee over the handling of the economic crisis, with Republican Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas asking whether he'd resign and saying "the public has lost all confidence in your ability to do your job."
It's unclear whether that will happen, but JPMorgan's Dimon may be at the frontline of possible successors, according to the New York Post. Dimon has had what appears to be a friendly relationship with regulators. He has also been quite vocal in his views about regulatory proposals, even if they don't necessarily benefit the industry or JPMorgan. For instance, while he has been critical of plans for a consumer protection agency, he recently wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post outlining his opposition to the notion of "too big to fail," despite the fact that his bank is considered just that.
I haven't written much about the Obama economic team. I don't think they're bad, but I also don't think they're great. But, I have to wonder how good anybody is when they're handed the worst financial situation in the last 60 years. While arm chair quarterbacks will of course point out all the mistakes they perceive, these are the same people who don't know the difference between the household and the establishment job survey. In other words, take the criticism with the largest grain of salt possible.
In addition, we're at a point where impatience is trumping reality. Considering the damage that the economy was in a year ago -- when there was a very real threat of a deflationary spiral like that the started the Great Depression -- we're actually doing OK. We saw growth last quarter (as have a number of countries), the manufacturing sector has rebounded, housing is bottoming, consumer spending is flat, and exports and imports are rising. The main issue is the unemployment rate which is a lagging indicator and for which there is unfortunately no silver bullet.
My political guess (for what it's worth) is someone will probably get fired largely to assuage anger and frustration. Who it is doesn't matter.