This is Bonddad. I mention that because there are four writers here: me, New Deal Democrat, Invictus and Silver Oz.
I (as in Bonddad) still believe the economy will grow in the 1%-2% range for the next few quarters. I have been saying that for the previous 6 months. Until I see otherwise, I will continue to hold to that prediction. In case you are wondering, there are several reasons for this.
1.) We are use to major quarter to quarter percent changes in PCEs. However, these do not need to grow at a fast pace to add to growth. If we see 1% PCE growth per quarter that will be sufficient for now.
2.) We still have a lot of stimulus money left to spend.
3.) We have a lot of inventories to rebuild.
4.) Exports are increasing. Yes, they are increasing at a slower rate than imports. But the point behind the increase in exports is it shows our trading partners are also growing. And contrary to the great myth of the econo-blogsphere, the US still manufactures a lot of stuff. We just do it with fewer people.
5.) The Fed is keeping rates very low.
I have yet to see any data which seriously undermines the above points.
Now, there are other writers who post here. I asked them to post here because they provide a solid counter-balance to my viewpoint. And unlike the vast majority of doom and gloomers, Silver Oz and Invictus provide thoughtful, well-researched and well-presented presented commentary. They both know the difference between the household and establishment job survey. And they're analysis does not jump around from point to point in an attempt to desperately hold onto a perspective. Instead, they rely on a dispassionate reading of data.
For those of you who are apparently having trouble with reading comprehension, everyone signs off on their work at the bottom of the page. So, before you assign a particular writer's viewpoint to me (or mine to somebody else), please look at the bottom of the page before doing so. It's really not that difficult.
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