Fewer Americans than anticipated filed claims for unemployment insurance last week as an administrative backlog subsided and indicating companies are nearing the end of major staff cuts as the economy recovers.
Initial jobless applications declined by 43,000 to 440,000 in the week ended Feb. 6, the lowest level in five weeks, from 483,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance and those receiving extended benefits decreased.
The fastest pace of growth in six years last quarter means the economy may be poised to add jobs as companies restock shelves to keep pace with increased sales. At the same time, with an unemployment rate projected to average almost 10 percent this year, consumer spending may be slow to recover.
“Things have not really deteriorated,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale SA in New York. “Unfortunately it doesn’t show much improvement either.”
Here's the chart:
2 comments:
The 52 week moving average of non
seasonally adjusted claims is now 547,970. This number topped out on November 7th at 576,773. It has a
.91 correlation to the unemployment rate. On a state basis all major states ares showing
nice declines in this number except
one very important state,California. A healthy California is usually 11%-13% of jobless claims. Today's numbers show California is 17.8% of non seasonally adjusted claims.
This is starting to look like Thomas Friedman's "the next six months in Iraq will be critical" nonsense that went on for more than three years.
In my industry (electronics), people aren't hiring. They're just stretching lead times. We're talking double, triple lead times, no hiring. And there's no market pressure to be the firm to hire workers, because everyone else is doing the same thing and revenue-starved OEMs are tossing everything (quality, value, service, delivery, you name it) and buying on price. They'll take a 30-week lead time over a 6-week lead time if they can get the part 10% cheaper. So, if anything, there's pressure to run even leaner, even if it means tossing another 4-6 weeks to your lead time.
We just came out of the worst recession in three generations. Managers have never seen anything like it, so they're all a little crazy right now.
Post a Comment