Thursday, April 1, 2010

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up





The oil market chart has been very perplexing for some time. Consider this yearly chart with simple price bars and nothing else:


There is just not a lot to sink you teeth into on that chart. In general, prices have moved between a few prices, but that's about all you can say. Ideally, we want to see prices move firmly in any direction. Instead, there has been a lot of zig-zagging between points.

That being said, let's look a little closer at the chart:




A.) For the last few weeks, prices have moved between two different price levels: 40.40 and 38.30.

B.) The EMA picture is turning bullish: the shorter EWAs are moving higher and the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs. But we've seen the EMAs bounce around the 200 day EMA for the last few months, advancing and then declining, only to advance again.

C.) Momentum is about to give a buy signal and

D.) Money is flowing into the stock.

Ideally the last two indicators tell us we're going to see a move higher, through some of the upside resistance areas. This would coincide with the "summer driving season."