Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Yesterday's Market

Let's start with the Treasury market, as it shows that concern is high.


While the short end of the Treasury curve has been higher, it is still very high, rallying and showing concern among traders. People are parking money in short-term securities out of concern for the economy.

The 7-10 year part of the curve is also showing a deep level of concern about the market and the economy. The last time we saw levels this high was the deep financial meltdown of 2008.


Yesterday, the TLTs broke through key resistance. They are approaching levels last seen at the height of the financial panic in 2008.

The Treasury market is signaling several things.

1.) Interest rates aren't increasing anytime soon.

2.) Deflation is a big concern

3.) There is tremendous concern about the economy and the stock market.



The transports are signaling more trouble ahead. After breaking through resistance (a), they rose a bit but then started falling hard a little over a week ago (b). Also note that yesterday prices gapped lower in a big way (c) and closed just below key levels.


Yesterday, industrial metals moved lower, breaking key support (b). Note the move lower was a big gap lower.


Agricultural commodities also fell, gapping lower (a).



Oil also gapped lower (a), although the move lower was not of the same magnitude as the DBAs or DBBs.



In the equity markets, the indexes opened lower with a big gap down (a). The SPYs made lower lows (b, c and d) throughout the day. But notice that in general, prices meandered in a tight range for most of the day. The reason is the sharp drop at the open. Whenever prices drop like that, it's typical to see them move sideways for the rest of the day. Also note the rising MACD (e), indicating there was an momentum for most of the day.