From the Conference Board:
“The indicators point to slower growth through the fall,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. “Two trends will have a direct impact on the pace of economic expansion. First, improvement in the industrial core of the economy will moderate as inventory rebuilding slows. Second, improvement in the service sector has been relatively slow, with little indication that it will pick up momentum.”“The LEI decreased in two of the last three months, but its level is still about 4.5 percent above its previous peak before the recession began,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “Moreover, the gains among the LEI components have been widespread, with the exception of housing permits and stock prices, pointing to an expanding economy, but at a slower pace in the second half of the year.”
Let's look at the data:
The chart clearly shows a slowing of the trend, but there is no sign of an imminent death spiral.
Note the primary reasons for the drop was a decrease in the workweek and supplier deliveries.
5 comments:
Keep whistling a happy tune, Bonddad. This economy is running on empty. Your worthless chart gazing is about to be exposed for the faith-based Voodoo it has always been.
The business and government leaders of this nation are choking our economy through their greed and corruption. Yet you proclaim "same as it ever was." Take a good look at our splendid "recovery" Bonddad, and keep whistling.
Dear Bob --
I realize that a man who has the ear of the current president knows soooo much more than I do. Yet I find it interesting that someone who is sooooo well connected continues to have the time to drop by and lob personal insults. Maybe that resume is nothing more than an extensive lie. And why is it that a man with your in-depth campaign experience and connections with important Democratic politicians doesn't turn up on any google search related to political campaigns?
Well, as a man with your extensive and professional resume should know, charts are the way economists present information. It's the way they have always presented information. It's either that or print a long series of numbers and tables which are far more confusing. It's also why the second or third chapter of most econ books deal with .... charts and graphs and how to use them. Of course -- given your incredibly deep educational background I'm sure you already knew that.
Which reminds me -- how many blown calls have you had over the last year? The last time I checked it was over 50. Perhaps I should write an in-depth article on all the blown calls you have made -- which I'm sure you will claim were just your reporting other people's opinions.
Your worthless chart gazing is about to be exposed
Yeah, "about to". For how long now? Ever notice with the Doomer crowd that something unspeakably awful is always "about" to happen?
My folks grew up during the real Depression, and if you tried to peddle your Doom Pornography on them, they'd laugh in your face. What we have is a weak economy recovering weakly--just like this blog's been saying for the last two fricken' years. Just like Krugman and Roubini are saying. Nobody is predicting the next great depression but you. And what's sickening is that you'll be disappointed when it doesn't happen.
Not great news, but given how awful a lot of the data from June seemed to be, I thought LEIs would be much worse. I'm a little concerned about the jump in jobless claims. An increase was expected and supposedly there were seasonal factors affecting it, but still the increase was larger than expected. I wonder what effect that has on the monthly jobs report.
Bob, go away if you don't like the analysis on this blog. You are acting the child.
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