Click on the above chart for a larger version.
The above is from the latest Case Shiller home price index. Notice the area in the black square. Note particularly that is has been around this level for the last two years or so. Finally, notice that prices have been in a fairly tight range for this period.
There's been an awful lot of talk/hype/pixels spilled lately regarding home prices. The above chart tells us that home prices have been fairly stable for the last two years. In fact, as NDD has pointed out, home prices may be far closer to stabilizing than previous thought.
2 comments:
Home prices have also been among the most publicly-supported markets in the entire economy since the start of the Conservative Depression, and those economic forces that are pushing it downward further -- mortgage fraud by big banks, high foreclosure rates, delayed listing of REOs, the Shadow Inventory, etc -- are improving only marginally at best right now. Oh, and a lot if that current public support for home prices has gone away or will soon.
Even Shiller himself last month said another 10% to 25% decline wouldn't surprise him because there are no adequate models for the current historical situation. I respect what you do, bonddad, but I have a hard time believing that you have more of an insight into the future of home prices than Professor Shiller, my friend.
Let me add one more thought into this question: How does any young person look at this market and say to themself, "Clearly, the worst is over. My career is secure. The future looks bright. It's time to buy my dream home." No, I think home prices are now merely in a long plateau within a decade-long or much longer decline.
I am one of those young people and I agree with Jimdotz.
Bonddad, how do discount the support that the gov has put in place for the housing market? In fact, they are the only game in town right now. Does that instill confidence for you for the future?
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