Thursday, December 1, 2011

Unleash the Floodgates of Money!!!!!!!

From Bloomberg:
Six central banks led by the Federal Reserve made it cheaper for banks to borrow dollars in emergencies in a global effort to ease Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Stocks rallied worldwide, commodities surged and yields on most European debt fell on the show of force from central banks aimed at easing strains in financial markets. The cost for European banks to borrow dollars dropped from the highest in three years, tempering concerns about the euro’s worsening crisis after leaders said they’d failed to boost the region’s bailout fund as much as planned.

“It’s supportive but not necessarily a game changer,” said Michelle Girard, senior U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “The impact is more psychological than anything else” as investors take heart from policy makers’ coordination, Girard said.

The premium banks pay to borrow dollars overnight from central banks will fall by half a percentage point to 50 basis points, the Fed said today in a statement in Washington. The so- called dollar swap lines will be extended by six months to Feb. 1, 2013. The Fed coordinated the move with the European Central Bank and the central banks of Canada, Switzerland, Japan and the U.K.
Why did this happen?
On Tuesday evening, Standard & Poor's downgraded the long-term debt ratings of some of the largest banks in the world.

By Wednesday morning, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and central banks from
Canada, England, Japan and Switzerland announced coordinated action to support liquidity in financial markets that mirrors the 2008 financial crisis.

Once banks saw their ratings downgraded, it raised the specter that they would have to post billions in additional collateral on trades just as market pressures make it hard for them to replace the funds through a stock or bond offering.
There was a rumor that a European bank had nearly failed -- which is said to be untrue.
The Interwebs are all aflame with a rumor that a European bank was about to go kaput last night, which is what inspired central banks to turn up the liquidity spigots today.

Trouble is, there’s not an ounce of evidence this is true.

The rumor is based on a blog post written at Forbes by a nuclear physicist/hedge-fund manager that is pure speculation on his part: The only reason central banks would do this, he says, is if a bank was on the verge of failure.
 Regardless of the rumor mill, the impetus for this coordinated move -- whatever it was -- can't be good; central banks don't increase liquidity in a massive move unless there is something wrong somewhere.  Period.

2 comments:

Steve S said...

The reason in one chart:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

The TED Spread had been below 50 basis points since July of 2009 but has been steadily climbing since the summer of this year.

There may be some less publicly available reasons for this move and some banks might be struggling. Increasing liquidity for these banks should help reduce the risk of credit seizing up.

On a related note, I've been wondering how the huge piles of cash that corporations have stock piled could affect another credit freeze. The big problem last time, as I recall was that even major corporations couldn't borrow money to meet short term obligations (salary payments, etc). But if they've got piles of cash this would seemingly be less problematic for them. They'd just use their reserves.

While that's not a long term solution to a credit freeze, it could help make the markets a little less panicky about that kind fo situation.

Anonymous said...

"...the impetus for this coordinated move -- whatever it was -- can't be good; central banks don't increase liquidity in a massive move unless there is something wrong somewhere. Period."

Very interesting. While the bolgosphere is filled with millions of words about this bank action, you "Cut to the chase." For sure, I'll stay tuned to your follow ups.

Best
Tom