Friday, May 11, 2012

The NAFTA Trade Story Is Actually More Important Than China

While all of our press seems to be concerned with China, this really isn't the big trade story of the US.  In reality, Canada and Mexico combined (the NAFTA countries) are out biggest trading partners.  Consider these charts from the US Census:



While China is an important export destination, it only accounted for $8.8 billion in February, whereas Canada accounted for $23.5 billion -- nearly three times as much.  And Mexico accounted for nearly two times the Canada trade.

China is the top country from whom we import, totaling $28.1 billion in February.  However, Canada is a very close second with $26.3 billion and Mexico is also a pretty close third with $22.7 billion.  Combined, the NAFTA countries account for 1.75 times the number of imports as China.

And consider these charts about the trade balance.  First, let's look at Canada:



Both charts show the same data, but in different ways.  The top chart shows exports (blue line) and imports (red line) to and from Canada, while the bottom chart shows the trade balance (exports - imports).  The trade balance started to go strongly negative in the late 1990s and continued to deteriorate, but has been far less so as a result of the Great Recession.



The US/Mexico charts show the exact same relationship, although since the end of the recession trade with Mexico deteriorated far less and is also closer to pre-recession levels.

So -- why is no one talking about this in the same way we are with China?


4 comments:

BruceMcF said...

You've shown why nobody is talking about this. The point about talking about trade in depressed economic conditions is either to talk up some action to restrict imports, or to talk up some action which is hoped to increase exports. $28b imports vs $9b exports makes China an easy target for that ~ even easier if many of those imports are commodities where the exporters have no need to be concerned about retaliatory action.

$40b in exports to Canada/Mexico are a lot of vested interests who do not wish for their to be a focus on NAFTA trade with respect to import restrictions, and who do not see the need for a dramatic change of course to open up export markets.

Anonymous said...

Why is nobody talking about this?

Try that these two countries provide energy and raw materials.

It would mean tightening one's belt, and maybe even telling a lobbyist or 3 to take a hike. Not going to happen when your politicians need an ever increasing war chest to compete with each other in the never ending election cycles.

A Canuck

Jimdotz said...

Not for nothing, but we import a whole lot more from Mexico than these charts would indicate. Just because those imported products are generally illegal doesn't mean they don't impact the economy.

Anonymous said...

It's not talked about because everyone knows that the trade deficit with Mexico and Canada is mostly due to oil, while the trade deficit with China is all goods. If we want our trade deficit with Mexico and Canada to go down, we just need to get lower oil prices.