The BLS released the June Employment Situation Summary this morning, which showed (Establishment Survey) job creation of 80,000 and private sector payroll growth of 84,000. The April jobs number was revised down to 68,000 (from 77,000) and the May jobs number was revised up to 77,000 (from 69,000). Both the regular workweek and manufacturing workweek edged up by .1 hours for the month. The Household Survey showed an unemployment rate of 8.2% with job creation of 128,000. The labor force participation rate remained at 63.8% on a gain of 156,000 and the employment-population ratio remained at 58.6. Overall this report (when compared to recent months) was about the same, showing anemic growth (but still growth) and little change to the unemployment rate. The best news out of this report (in my opinion) was that the May number received an upward adjustment (albeit small) and that the workweek grew a bit. Other than those points, this report continued on the recent weakness in job creation we have seen since April. Read on for more analysis.
Since the seasonal adjustments have been called into question by just about everyone lately, let's take a look at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers from this report. The June Establishment Survey showed job creation (NSA) of 391,000, which means the seasonal adjustment subtracted 311,000 jobs from the NSA number. Also of note is that private sector NSA job creation for June was 815,000, while NSA government jobs posted a loss of 424,000 jobs for the month.
It is also interesting to note that in the last year the number of people 65+ who have left the labor force is 1.47 million (and yes, those people count when determining the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio).
So, while job growth appears to have stagnated during the 2nd quarter, it also appears to have potentially stabilized at relatively low levels of job creation, hopefully allowing us to skirt another contraction in employment and potential contraction in the economy.
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9 comments:
Hi, I was trying to track down your quote that job creation was actually 391,000 according to the June Establishment Survey. I looked through some of the non-adjusted numbers at BLS but didn't see that. Could you show me where it was, please? I quoted you in my blog but would just like to get a source (because I will be challenged on it).
Thanks!
Another poor jobs report. I've now been a little bit overly optimistic two months in a row. I still think that lower gas prices will improve the economy in July and August. Unfortunately, I believe that oil prices has reached a bottom for now, so the economy this fall looks alarming, especially when you add the automatic cuts and fiscal cliff coming up.
We now have four more job reports before the election. If these reports do not show any improvement, we will be looking at President Romney next year.
In 1980, job growth for the months of Aug, Sep. and Oct. were 260,000, 113,000 and 280,000. The improvement in the jobs numbers came too late to help Jimmy Carter. Obama is running out of runway.
Jon,
The 391k comes from taking the total nonfarm NSA of June (134,116,000) and subtracting the nonfarm NSA of May (133,725,000) to get the NSA Establishment Survey number.
@esong
I think inflation and the Iran hostage situation sunk Carter a lot more than the jobs picture in 1980. Couple that with an excellent orator and television persona of a candidate and you had a recipe for disaster. I am not sure Mitt meets the same criteria.
esong_98, I dont know if that comparison really works. According to Gallup, Carter's approval numbers were in the low 30s, even hitting 29, in summer of 1979. He got a "rally around the leader" bounce in Nov 1979, when the Iran hostage crisis started, but that faded by March as the crisis dragged on.
Obama has much stronger numbers, although it will certainly be a close election. Unlike Carter, Obama is pretty solid on foreign policy. The Bin laden raid is a 180 from Desert One.
This isnt to downplay the jobs numbers, they will have an impact on the race, but I dont think the direct comparison really works.
SilverOz,
Thanks for the info. BTW, the blog I referenced is here.
http://somedisagree.com/2012/07/06/july-jobs-report-not-good-but-still-positive/
"It is also interesting to note that in the last year the number of people 65+ who have left the labor force is 1.47 million (and yes, those people count when determining the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio). "
And that's about the same number of 65+ year olds that leave the labor force every year.
I'm still optimistic to believe that the economy will pick up enough for Obama to win a close race. However, if I'm wrong and the the economy continues to stagnant, then I believe that Steve Liesman's comment today on CNBC will come true: "Thank you Mr. President, but it wasn't good enough."
I believe that if the economy does not improve, most undecideds will vote for Romney. Remember, the 1980 race was a deadheat until the final weekend of the campaign. The good news is because of foreign policy and an economy better than that in 1980, Obama is in better shape to win this election than Carter was back in 1980.
I'd be willing to lose my job if it would make it less likely for Obama to win a second term. I think he would do irreparable damage to the country if re-elected.
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