The SPYs have sold off a bit from their recent advance. However, prices are now consolidating at levels established in late March. They are also using the 10 and 20 day EMAs for technical support. Finally, the declining volume over the last three days indicates this is not a big sell-off, but instead a technical pause.
The treasury market market has rebounded from its sell-off. The top chart shows the IEF daily where prices have rebounded to the 50% Fib level. However, the last three days worth of candles are weak; the bodies are very narrow and the shadows are thin, indicating the rally has stalled for now. The lower chart (the sixty minute chart) shows that prices are hitting resistance at levels established in early August.
The copper market is still consolidating at low levels, with the ETF trading between 42 and 45 for the last two months.
The Real -- which has been selling off in tandem with the weakening of the Brazilian economy -- is also consolidating. The top chart shows prices are using the 200 week EMA as technical support. The lower chart (which is daily) shows prices have a slight upward bias. However, this is really still a consolidating move.
4 comments:
I'm becoming very concerned about this market. More bad economic news today. Unemployment claims up once again confirming that rising claims is now a trend. My guess is that rising gas prices is taking its toll much quicker than usual.
The news bodes well for Romney. The public likes Obama and will give him the benefit of the doubt. But my sense is that if unemployment numbers don't improve, voters at the last minute will choose Romney as our next president. I still predict that we will see some improvement when the August numbers come out next week. But September is looking weaker.
PS: I might not have access to the internet for the next nine days or so, so after today, you might not hear from me for awhle.
@esong98: First of all, first-time jobless claims were unchanged last week.
I would think it is far to early to say first time claims are in the early stages of what would be a steep (relative to the last year of changes) climb to 400k+ territory.
The worst series I can find in the 4-week moving average of initial claims would be a climb from about 362k to around 388k in just under 3 months.
I'd ask you to explain what would precipitate claims surpassing those gains in the 67 days we have to the election. And don't forget that oil was trading above $108 when that climb began, and had been trading above $95 for several months before that. We only crossed the $95 mark a few weeks ago.
Frankly, I just don't see it.
Forgot to include the charts...
You can see there is really no basis to call for a rally.
4 week moving average of initial claims for the last 12 months.
And the oil choke collar is a lot more slack than it was from October through May.
Crude Oil 12mo
Anonymous: First time claims are only unchanged when you compare apple with oranges. The initial estimate of first time claims is ALMOST ALWAYS revised upwards the following week. Thus, I guarantee that this week figures will show unemployment claims rising when they are revised next week.
What I'm comparing is the initial estimate of last week's claims with the initial estimate of the weeks before.
I remember some time ago, for about a month, every week new claims kept falling from the previous week, yet, initial claims were substantially higher at the end of the period than at the beginning period.
No, unemployment claims are higher this week than last week and have been up for 4 straight weeks and the last 7 of 8 weeks. This indicates a trend in higher claims.
Post a Comment